I've been meaning to post something more substantial on this, but I've had too many thoughts and too little time. But I want to go on the record pointing out that 2004 is 36 years after 1968, perhaps the last realignment to occur in American politics (a "split-level" one which didn't really hit down-ballot until 1994). The textbook theory of realignments in American politics is that they occur every 36 years (1932, 1896, 1932).
I'm not sure what's going to happen tomorrow, but I don't think it's gonna look much any of those (though Karl Rove is hoping for a repeat of 1896). I do think we could be seeing changes, or the culmination of changes, in voting patterns that will "stick" for many years to come.
In my book, the fundamental feature of these past realignments (or semi-realignments, or alleged realignments) has been that the critical elections in question constructed (or re-constructed) the political self-identity of large groups of voters for many elections into the future. Voters weren't just acting out of well-worn reflex or lackadasical whim, but making a commitment so serious and considered that they would stick to it for most of the rest of their lives.
I think that might just be the kind of commitment being made tomorrow. Nearly everyone casting a vote tomorrow will not be expressing a hesitant preference, but a full-throated statement, a judgement on the politics and policies of the Bush administration, which could have ripples for years to come.
Posted by Michael at November 2, 2004 03:34 AM | TrackBack