Mathew Gross has thrown down the collective gauntlet, so I might as well join in:
Kerry - 50%, 305 electoral votes
Bush - 47%, 233 electoral votes
Nader - 1.5%
Others - 1.5
The electoral college guess seems very optimistic, but my basic premise is that Kerry wins both Ohio and Florida, each of which is very possible given the current polls and the tremendous ground game going on there (Pennsylvania is looking increasingly safe). The only other state to change hands in his favor from 2000 would be New Hampshire, while he would actually lose Wisconsin, and Colorado would split 5-4 in favor of Bush. (I'm also conservatively keeping Nevada and Missouri in the GOP column, each of which is far from a sure thing.)
Ask me again after the third debate, though.
By the way, the best tool I've seen for playing around with the electoral map is on the front page of myDD (click on the white space for a larger pop-up).
Also, check out the track-backs on Gross's entry above for predictions from a lot of people, many of them much smarter than me.
Posted by Michael at October 8, 2004 03:57 PM | TrackBackThe Colorado guess also presumes that the amendment to the Colorado Constitution concerning Colorado's electoral votes actually passes. I have serious doubts about it passing. That fact doesn't affect your final tally, but I thought it worth mentioning.
By the way, did you see Jon Stewart's appearance on Crossfire? Brilliant. I felt the exact sentiments after sitting in on the show last year (and I have you to thank for the tip about getting in!), but would be hard-pressed to express them so eloquently.
If only more people were channelling the spirit of Bill Hicks...
Posted by: John Reinhart at October 26, 2004 10:20 PM