Red All Over

Bouncing...

Good news, in three parts:

I. The very smart Ruy Teixeira reports that whether there was an overall bounce or not, the internals look good for Kerry:

His favorables go up from 48 percent/39 percent pre-convention to 51 percent/32 percent post-convention. His advantage on the economy goes from –1 to +11; on Iraq, from –12 to +2; on education, from +1 to +13; on the campaign against terrorism, from –18 to –3; on health care, from +3 to +19; and on taxes, from –6 to +6.

On candidate characteristics, he also posts strong gains: on honest and trustworthy, he goes from –6 to +6; on understands the problems of people like you, from +4 to +14; on strong leader, from –19 to –6; on making the country safer and more secure, from –16 to –3; on shares your values, from –6 to +6; and on having a vision for the future, he bests Bush by thirteen points.

Kerry also is now considered more of an optimist; pre-convention, he was considered an optimist by 55 percent and a pessimist by 34 percent; now he is rated an optimist by 65 percent and a pessimist by 22 percent. That’s actually a better rating than Bush now gets on this question.

And here’s a particularly impressive result: by 52 percent to 44 percent, voters select Kerry over Bush as the one better qualified to be commander in chief of the U.S. military.

II. New polling shows Pennsylvania moving gloriously close to the safe Democratic column: 53-41, an even better margin for Kerry than in my home state of Washington, where nobody seriously thinks Bush has much of a shot. And Tennessee's looking close too.

III. Fuck Matthew Dowd. Frank Luntz thinks Bush is in big trouble. (And lest you think that's nothing more than bar-room gossip, his focus group presentation the night of Kerry's speech didn't make the prospects look too sunny for his party.)

Posted by Michael at August 4, 2004 04:56 AM | TrackBack