So I've had a lot of thoughts for blog posts about this convention, but obviously none of them have quite made it. Mostly just laziness, but I thought it would be worthwhile to put a few thoughts down about the big speech before he goes live.
First, this is hugely important, no matter what any pundits say about the meaningless pageantry of political conventions, or how undecided voters there are. This is Kerry's first, best, and last opportunity to introduce himself to the nation.
Obviously, then, the first major objective for Kerry is to pass the "gut check" with voters -- they need to become comfortable with the idea that he could be their president, regardless of what they think of the current one. The talking heads have been saying this for days, and of course they're right.
As they are, particularly the conservative ones, who say that Kerry needs to say something meaningful about Iraq. He has gone through the entire campaign to this point trying to talk around the issue without ever really offering a coherent policy. It's not so much that he needs to explain his vote (although he still hasn't, adequately), it's that he needs to offer some specifics, and some common sense, on how we can get our troops out of what he now acknowledges is a mess. It's a tough task, but if he can do it, I think he could win the election tonight.
And finally, and this is a point that most of the pundits have underemphasized (incorrectly, I think), is that no matter how bad Bush's poll numbers, no matter how polarized the nation is, he still does need to make a cogent, compelling, and concise (the latter will be the biggest problem for him), for why Bush needs to be fired. Clinton and Carter both did that well on Monday, and Edwards touched on it yesterday, but it needs to be heard from the horse's mouth.
From my previous posts, my low opinion of John Kerry is probably pretty clear. I don't particularly like the man, and I think he's far from the most capable candidate the party has to offer. But I'm optimistic about tonight. In part because Bob Shrum is doing the writing, but in part because if there's one good thing that can be said about Kerry, it's that he comes out fighting when the stakes are high -- in Iowa in January, against Bill Weld in '96, and yes, even as a young man in Vietnam.
And godspeed to him.